Mortgage Rates Today, Wednesday, June 17: Even Lower

With an end to the Iran war possibly in sight, we’ve seen average mortgage interest rates drop to their lowest levels in more than a month.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.15% APR, according to rates provided to BoundlessCash by Zillow. This is 12 basis points lower than yesterday and 24 basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Though the U.S. and Iran’s agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is a big deal, the lengthy closure’s already done considerable damage to the global economy. As such, inflation’s still a major concern — and a reason we may not see mortgage rates drop with a capital D.

The Federal Reserve’s expected to announce no change to the federal funds rate this afternoon, but markets anticipate a possible rate increase later this year. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but its decisions are still hugely influential. A shift to a rate-hiking cycle would almost certainly send mortgage rates higher.

For more on what to watch for at today’s announcement and what may come next, keep reading below the chart.

🤓 Kate on Rates: June 11, 2026

This is a big week for interest-rate-related news. The Federal Open Market Committee’s June meeting concludes today, and it’s the first meeting for newly appointed chair Kevin Warsh. Markets are currently predicting overwhelming odds that the FOMC will vote to hold overnight borrowing rates steady, but today’s meeting also brings a new Summary of Economic Projections featuring the FOMC’s anonymized economic predictions. Though Warsh has expressed distaste for these predictions as well as for the practice of holding a post-decision press conference, he will be speaking this afternoon and we are definitely going to be watching.

Even though the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, its decisions have a major influence on rates’ direction. Mortgage lenders often start pricing in expected cuts or hikes from the Federal Reserve well ahead of the actual announcements. If it begins to look like the Fed is likely to raise, that will probably increase upward pressure on mortgage rates. And despite the president’s relentless requests for lower interest rates, it’s looking more and more like the central bankers’ next move will be higher rather than lower.

“The committee will be sussing out whether what we’re seeing in the [inflation] data represents something that will work itself out in time or whether it risks being persistent,” says Elizabeth Renter, BoundlessCash senior economist. Between that and recent employment data, “we know a rate cut is all but off the table.”

Here’s what could happen longer term. If the Fed decides that inflationary pressures are transitory or that this is a risk they can look through (to use two of the bankers’ favorite buzzwords), we’ll likely see rates held steady for longer. In other words, inflation’s a problem that will work itself out, so the Federal Reserve won’t raise the funds rate — but they won’t cut it either. A legitimate end to the war in Iran would make this scenario more likely.

Now, markets are contemplating the possibility of at least one rate hike in 2026. An end to the war could pump the brakes on inflation, but it won’t be a hard stop. If there’s enough momentum, we could see inflation continue to accelerate for a time.

All of this removes any possible downward pressure on mortgage rates. For now, the Fed’s maintaining, so mortgage rates’ day-to-day movements are going to be influenced by events in Iran and the bond market. But if it starts to look like the central bankers will raise rates, mortgage lenders will almost certainly start raising mortgage interest rates, too.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.65% or higher.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

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