With an end to the Iran war possibly in sight, we’ve seen average mortgage interest rates drop to their lowest levels in more than a month.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.15% APR, according to rates provided to BoundlessCash by Zillow. This is 12 basis points lower than yesterday and 24 basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Though the U.S. and Iran’s agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is a big deal, the lengthy closure’s already done considerable damage to the global economy. As such, inflation’s still a major concern — and a reason we may not see mortgage rates drop with a capital D.

The Federal Reserve’s expected to announce no change to the federal funds rate this afternoon, but markets anticipate a possible rate increase later this year. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but its decisions are still hugely influential. A shift to a rate-hiking cycle would almost certainly send mortgage rates higher.

For more on what to watch for at today’s announcement and what may come next, keep reading below the chart.

Kate on Rates: June 11, 2026

This is a big week for interest-rate-related news. The Federal Open Market Committee’s June meeting concludes today, and it’s the first meeting for newly appointed chair Kevin Warsh. Markets are currently predicting overwhelming odds that the FOMC will vote to hold overnight borrowing rates steady, but today’s meeting also brings a new Summary of Economic Projections featuring the FOMC’s anonymized economic predictions. Though Warsh has expressed distaste for these predictions as well as for the practice of holding a post-decision press conference, he will be speaking this afternoon and we are definitely going to be watching.

Even though the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, its decisions have a major influence on rates’ direction. Mortgage lenders often start pricing in expected cuts or hikes from the Federal Reserve well ahead of the actual announcements. If it begins to look like the Fed is likely to raise, that will probably increase upward pressure on mortgage rates. And despite the president’s relentless requests for lower interest rates, it’s looking more and more like the central bankers’ next move will be higher rather than lower.

“The committee will be sussing out whether what we’re seeing in the [inflation] data represents something that will work itself out in time or whether it risks being persistent,” says Elizabeth Renter, BoundlessCash senior economist. Between that and recent employment data, “we know a rate cut is all but off the table.”

Here’s what could happen longer term. If the Fed decides that inflationary pressures are transitory or that this is a risk they can look through (to use two of the bankers’ favorite buzzwords), we’ll likely see rates held steady for longer. In other words, inflation’s a problem that will work itself out, so the Federal Reserve won’t raise the funds rate — but they won’t cut it either. A legitimate end to the war in Iran would make this scenario more likely.

Now, markets are contemplating the possibility of at least one rate hike in 2026. An end to the war could pump the brakes on inflation, but it won’t be a hard stop. If there’s enough momentum, we could see inflation continue to accelerate for a time.

All of this removes any possible downward pressure on mortgage rates. For now, the Fed’s maintaining, so mortgage rates’ day-to-day movements are going to be influenced by events in Iran and the bond market. But if it starts to look like the central bankers will raise rates, mortgage lenders will almost certainly start raising mortgage interest rates, too.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.65% or higher.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

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It’s not a big enough dip to really make a difference, but mortgage interest rates are lower today.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 6.39% APR, according to rates provided to BoundlessCash by Zillow. This is seven basis points lower than yesterday and four basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Even though rates are lower today, mortgage rates in general have been elevated over the last few months.

While the economy never sleeps, markets are closed on the weekends. The rates you see Friday are unlikely to change much (if at all) until Monday.

From the Nerds: Kate on Rates

The next piece of major news that the Nerds are watching will be the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 16-17. Market watchers are currently predicting overwhelming odds that the FOMC will vote to hold overnight borrowing rates steady, meaning that the Fed won’t be delivering reprieve to mortgage shoppers hoping for a dramatic drop.

Even though the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, its decisions have a major influence on rates’ direction. Mortgage lenders often start pricing in expected cuts or hikes from the Federal Reserve well ahead of the actual announcements. Though the central bankers are unlikely to make changes at their meeting later this month, if it begins to look like the Fed is likely to raise, that will probably increase upward pressure on mortgage rates.

“Under new Fed Chair Warsh, the Committee will be sussing out whether what we’re seeing in the data represents something that will work itself out in time or whether it risks being persistent,” says Elizabeth Renter, BoundlessCash senior economist. “Paired with the labor market data from last week, we know a rate cut is all but off the table.”

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.89% or higher.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

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Mortgage rates continued to ride the seesaw they’ve been on all week, rising and falling with what’s happening in the Iran war. Though rates moved decidedly higher this morning, it might only take a single positive headline to get them easing back down.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.46% APR, according to rates provided to BoundlessCash by Zillow. This is 11 basis points higher than yesterday and four basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Lately mortgage rates’ movements have been driven by the situation in Iran, as bond markets react to the headlines coming out of the Middle East. Generally, when it looks like the conflict may be abating, rates have fallen. When the news shows aggression intensifying, rates have risen. It’s been a mixed bag this week, so mortgage rates’ ups and downs would be better characterized as fidgeting rather than any kind of definitive movement.

For more on why the Iran war has had such a strong influence on mortgage rates, plus a deep-dive on what’s happening in the U.S. economy, keep reading below the chart.

P.S.: While the economy never sleeps, markets are closed on the weekends. The rates you see Friday are unlikely to change much (if at all) until Monday.

From the Nerds: Kate on Rates

Tuesday brought April Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. JOLTS shows movement in the workforce, with stats on the number of job openings, layoffs and quits. The numbers actually looked pretty good, with job openings beating expectations, though separations — people leaving jobs, voluntarily or not — weren’t great.

A job opening doesn’t necessarily equal a new hire, but Wednesday’s May National Employment Report from payroll administration firm ADP helped put a more positive spin on April JOLTS. ADP came in slightly stronger than expected, implying that some of those April job openings indeed turned into May hires.

And this morning we got May’s Employment Situation Summary, better known as the jobs report. This data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics gives us, among other measures, the country’s official unemployment rate.

Unemployment was unchanged in May, as predicted, but the number of jobs added was considerably over market estimates: 172,000 versus the expected 88,000. “The narrative for the past year or so has been a cooling labor market,” says Elizabeth Renter, BoundlessCash senior economist. “We’ve been waiting for some kind of movement while hanging out in a more stagnant, low-hire, low-fire environment. This most recent data makes a good case that the cooling has indeed stopped.”

With all of this data implying the U.S. labor market is finding its footing, sorry Warsh — the case for rate cuts is even weaker. A reasonably healthy job market means the Fed needs to set its sights on curbing inflation.

Even though the Federal Reserve doesn’t set mortgage rates, the Fed’s actions influence the entire economy. Mortgage rates would likely head lower if it looked like Fed rate cuts were imminent, but if the central bankers are looking to raise rates, well, mortgage rates would probably rise, too.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.96% or higher.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

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Mortgage rates have been edging downward as markets seem … I don’t want to say oddly optimistic about the Iran war, but investors appear to be taking a rosier view than may be warranted. On one hand, OK, sure, negotiations to end the war remain ongoing. On the other hand, both sides launched strikes over the weekend, so it continues to be unclear how much ceasing is truly happening in this ceasefire.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.32% APR, according to rates provided to BoundlessCash by Zillow. This is 11 basis points lower than Friday and eight basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

For more on how what’s going on in the Middle East and at home has been affecting mortgage rates, keep reading below the chart.

From the Nerds: Kate on Rates

There are three reports incoming, each a bit different:

These measures have all been pretty strong lately, despite, y’know, everything. BoundlessCash senior economist Elizabeth Renter notes that the U.S. job market is always complex, but “right now, it’s even more puzzling, as the labor market is shifting under changing demographics, broad economic uncertainty in the face of war and shifting policies, and the potential structural changes introduced by AI.”

If it looks like the job market is faltering or even just showing signs of increased stress, the Federal Reserve’s job will get that much more complicated. The Fed usually stimulates employment by cutting rates. But lowering interest rates in an inflationary environment risks further fueling inflation. Should both inflation and the labor market look imperiled, the Fed may have to decide which fire to put out and which one to allow to burn a bit longer.

Even though the Federal Reserve doesn’t set mortgage rates, the Fed’s actions influence the entire economy. Mortgage rates would likely head lower if it looked like Fed rate cuts were imminent, but if the central bankers are looking to raise rates, well, mortgage rates could rise, too.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.82% or higher.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

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Mortgage rates are likely to move up in June, though the increase might not be as severe as what customers are seeing at the gas station.

The Federal Reserve typically releases a summary of economic projections four times a year. The report conveys central bankers’ predictions for the economy across a range of factors, including inflation, GDP growth and employment. The report also gives insights into how central bankers might set the federal funds rate in the months ahead, along with perceived economic risks.

It’s possible that new chair Kevin Warsh will change the Fed’s approach to communications. Warsh believes that central bankers have been too transparent in telegraphing decisions ahead of meetings, and has said that he’d like to reform the Fed as a more tight-lipped institution.

If the Fed does make the June summary of economic projection public, it will be the first report since the war in Iran really began to have a measurable impact on the economy, making it especially informative for rate-watchers.

The last report was released in mid-March; the war hadn’t lasted three weeks yet, and there was still hope that it could be a short-lived conflict.

The March projection outlined central bankers’ expectations that inflation was easing, and unemployment appeared to be steady. The economic signals indicated in the March summary could have created a pathway for the Fed to lower rates through 2027.

If the report indicates that central bankers foresee worsening inflation and rising interest rates, lenders could respond by raising mortgage rates throughout the summer.

From the Nerds: Kate on Rates

Rising energy prices make it more costly to manufacture and transport goods, and the war with Iran — in an important region for oil shipping and production — has stoked inflation fears among investors.

High fuel costs could have pushed mortgage rates up even further by now, but rates have been cushioned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The government-sponsored entities have been buying up billions of dollars’ worth of mortgage-backed securities.

According to Realtor.com, Fannie Mae’s mortgage bond portfolio has more than doubled in the past year at the direction of President Trump.

“At Fannie Mae, our mission guides how we operate, which is especially important today as the macroeconomic environment is adding uncertainty to an already challenging housing market,” said Peter Akwaboah, acting CEO and chief operating officer at Fannie Mae, in Q1 2026 earnings-call remarks.

While Fannie and Freddie continue on this buying path, rates should stay below their worst-case-scenario thresholds. Still, security purchases can only do so much, and it likely won’t be enough to stop rates from rising altogether.

Fannie Mae’s latest housing forecast (released on May 12) shows rates moving above its April prediction. The previous forecast had rates falling in Q3 and Q4, ending the year with the 30-year rate at an average of 6.1%. The May forecast revises this projection, with rates remaining at 6.3% until the second quarter of 2027.

The Mortgage Bankers Association projects slightly rising rates through the rest of this year. MBA’s latest projections show 30-year mortgage rates ending the year at an average of 6.5%.

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