As Bitcoin (BTC) hovers near its lowest levels since late 2024, a market observer suggests the flagship crypto may not have finished bottoming yet, with more downside potentially ahead.

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BTC’s Historical Data Points To Longer Correction

On Wednesday, analyst Rekt Capital compared Bitcoin’s current price action to its performance in previous cycles to determine how close the leading crypto’s market bottom may be.

In a video analysis on X, the market watcher explained that BTC’s deviations from previous all-time highs (ATHs) could serve as key reference points for this assessment. Notably, Bitcoin bottomed 22% from the 2017 peak during the last cycle’s correction. Now, it is trading roughly 14% below the 2021 peak of $69,000, which could suggest the bottom may be approaching.

However, the analyst affirmed that this metric alone “doesn’t represent the mosaic of data that we need to be paying attention to.” He stated that the length of previous bear markets is a crucial indicator to factor in, noting that, historically, Bitcoin bear markets tend to last at least one year, sometimes extending beyond that.

For instance, the flagship crypto took approximately 365 days to complete its full corrective phase during the 2021-2022 bear market. The current pullback has lasted about 240 days so far, which would depart from historical behavior and make it significantly shorter than previous cycles if the bottom is already in or close.

If the current cycle follows a similar timeline to previous ones, BTC could have at least 120 days left in its corrective phase, with the bottom likely occurring around October and the possibility of further extension if the cycle mirrors longer historical patterns.

Bitcoin Bottom Another 20% Below?

The analyst highlighted that while the duration of the bear market is important, the depth of its retracement is another crucial factor. Last cycle, Bitcoin dropped 77%, while it declined 84% during its 2018 bear market.

Nonetheless, the pullback has only reached 53% so far this cycle, suggesting there may still be room for additional downside. Based on this, he emphasized the trend of shallower bear markets, with the correction’s depth progressively diminishing roughly 7%-10% each cycle.

If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin could see a potential retracement near 70% this cycle, placing BTC’s bottom in the high $30,000 range. Meanwhile, if the shallowing trend accelerates toward a 10% reduction, the bottom could form near the low $40,000 region.

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These factors point to a critical period over the next four to five months, the analyst affirmed, in which another leg down of up to 20% remains possible. He noted that similar phases have historically included periods of consolidation followed by additional declines before the final bottom forms.

Ultimately, Rekt Capital asserted that this period is crucial as it lays the foundation for the next bull cycle. “This bear market here (…) precedes an entire period of multi-year upside. And I think that’s why it’s important, as a result, to focus on the importance of this bear market bottoming out period over these next few months because we’ll then see a multi-year period of upside,” he concluded.

Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $72,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might continue to move down if it dips below $70,500.

• Bitcoin failed to stay above $73,500 and extended losses.
• The price is trading below $72,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $73,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $72,500 and $73,500 levels.

Bitcoin Price Takes A Hit

Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $74,000 support zone. BTC remained in a bearish zone and extended losses below the $73,500 level. There was a move below the $73,000 level.

There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $73,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The price even dipped below $72,000. A low was formed at $70,581 and the price is now consolidating losses with a bearish angle below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $74,161 swing high to the $70,581 low.

Bitcoin is now trading below $72,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $70,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $71,950 level. The first key resistance is near the $72,350 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $74,161 swing high to the $70,581 low.

A close above the $72,350 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $73,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $74,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $75,000.

Downside Acceleration In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $71,200 level.

The first major support is near the $70,500 level. The next support is now near the $70,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $68,800 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $68,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $70,500, followed by $70,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $71,950 and $72,350.

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