SpaceX’s first week as a public company is starting to look less like a conventional stock-market debut and more like a high-leverage crypto asset.

Shares of Elon Musk-led company, trading under the ticker SPCX, extended their post-IPO rally Tuesday as investors piled into one of the smallest public floats ever attached to a company valued in the trillions of dollars.

The stock rose as much as 13% to $210 in early market trading, according to Yahoo Finance data.

This frenzy has also crossed into digital-asset markets, where SPCX-linked perpetual futures have become one of the busiest contracts across crypto trading platforms.

Tiny float turns demand into momentum

SpaceX’s post-IPO rally has been intensified by the unusually small amount of stock available for public trading.

The company sold 555.6 million shares in its IPO, raising $75 billion. The sale later expanded to 638.9 million shares and about $85.7 billion in proceeds after underwriters exercised their overallotment option.

Even after the additional shares, only a narrow slice of SpaceX’s equity entered the public market. This is because the company has about 13 billion shares outstanding, meaning the IPO released only a small portion of its total stock.

Thus, Musk and other insiders still control most of the company, while lockup agreements limit how much additional supply can reach the market in the near term.

Thierry Borgeat, co-founder of Arvy, said that structure created an exceptionally tight supply setup for a company of SpaceX’s scale, with index funds, retail traders, and momentum buyers all chasing a limited number of tradeable shares.

Crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto drew a similar comparison to digital-asset markets, arguing that SPCX is behaving like a token with a heavily restricted release schedule.

He said the small liquid float can help drive sharp early gains, but warned that later unlocks could create sell pressure as more shares become available for trading.

That imbalance has made each wave of demand more powerful. With few natural sellers on the other side, buying from retail investors, index-linked funds, and speculative traders can move the stock sharply higher.

CNBC’s Jim Cramer pointed this out, saying the stock was behaving like a meme stock because it had “no sellers.”

As a result, the pressure has helped SpaceX climb more than 50% from its $135 IPO price just days after its record listing.

Crypto platforms turn the rally into a leverage trade

The same supply pressure that has driven SpaceX higher in the stock market has spilled into crypto derivatives, where traders are using leveraged contracts to chase the rally around the clock.

SPCX traded at $222.52 over the past 24 hours, up $48.12, or 27.6%, according to CoinGlass data. Futures volume jumped 501.5% to nearly $9 billion, while open interest climbed to $813 million, signaling a sharp increase in both trading activity and capital committed to the market.

These contracts give traders synthetic exposure to SpaceX’s share price through a crypto-native product that trades continuously and allows leverage. That structure has turned the post-IPO rally into a 24-hour speculation cycle, extending the stock-market frenzy beyond regular trading hours.

For a stock such as SpaceX, where public supply is limited, and social media is helping shape the narrative in real time, that kind of market can intensify price swings.

The leverage has already forced a sharp unwind. CoinGlass data showed more than $30 million in SPCX positions liquidated over 24 hours as price volatility exceeded 35%. Short liquidations accounted for about $19 million of that total, compared with roughly $12 million in long liquidations.

That liquidation profile shows how the rally has fed on itself. When short sellers are forced out, exchanges automatically buy back exposure to close their positions.

That buying can push prices higher, forcing more bearish traders to exit. The same mechanic has fueled violent rallies in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and smaller tokens during crowded positioning events.

For SpaceX, the loop is now clear. A thin public float drives the stock higher. The rising share price pulls more traders into perpetual futures. Short liquidations add more forced buying. The derivative market then reinforces the perception that the rally still has momentum.

Together, those markets have transformed SpaceX’s first week as a public company into a cross-asset momentum trade.

An AI deal gives SPCX’s rally a new catalyst

The rally gained another narrative boost after SpaceX announced an agreement to acquire Anysphere, the software company behind the AI coding tool Cursor, for $60 billion. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026.

The firm stated:

“SpaceX has exercised the option to acquire Cursor in an all-stock transaction with the goal of building the world’s most useful AI models. For the past few months, SpaceXAI has been jointly training a model with Cursor, which will be released in Cursor and Grok Build soon.”

Quinn Thompson, chief investment officer of Lekker Capital, described the deal as a clever use of SpaceX’s newly elevated equity value.

He said the company was using a low-float, retail-inflated stock price to buy real businesses before the lockup period expires, calling it a creative way to turn post-IPO momentum into acquisition power.

Moreover, the deal gives investors a fresh reason to treat SpaceX as a broader technology platform rather than a company defined only by rockets and satellites.

Musk has increasingly positioned the business across launch services, Starlink, defense systems, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and enterprise software.

That broader identity helps explain why some investors are willing to support a valuation that appears stretched against current revenue. Bulls are looking beyond today’s sales and betting that SpaceX can become critical infrastructure across several large markets at once.

The Anysphere transaction fits that view. Cursor has become one of the most closely watched AI coding products, competing in a market where OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and other technology companies are racing to automate software development.

Bringing Cursor into SpaceX would deepen Musk’s exposure to enterprise AI while potentially giving Anysphere access to greater computing resources.

For traders, the immediate effect is simpler. The deal keeps the growth story expanding while the stock is still in its early price-discovery phase.

In a market already driven by scarcity, leverage, and social-media momentum, a major AI acquisition gives buyers another reason to stay involved and short sellers another risk to manage.

Valuation math tests the rally

The harder question now is whether SpaceX can hold its valuation once investors shift from momentum trading to fundamentals.

Henrik Zeberg, a macro strategist at Swissblock, warned that the rally looks more like late-cycle speculation than the start of a durable bull-market advance. He said:

“This is NOT what you see at Bull Market Take-Offs. This is the Final Phases of a Bull Market. And people speculating in SpaceX will lose a lot of money … unfortunately!”

That skepticism is sharpened by the scale of SpaceX’s valuation. Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, noted that the company’s market value has climbed above $3 trillion, putting it ahead of Amazon and near Microsoft.

The comparison is striking because those companies generate far more revenue and substantial annual profit, while SpaceX is still producing losses.

In view of this, Bilello stated:

“SpaceX is a great company and will go on to do great things. But a few months from now we will look back at this moment as peak mania. Investors are pricing SpaceX stock as if the future has already happened.”

That leaves investors paying years in advance for execution. If SpaceX keeps growing quickly, wins large contracts and turns its AI push into a meaningful business line, the premium may hold.

But if growth slows, losses persist or locked-up shares begin entering the market, the same structure that powered the rally could start working in reverse.

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SpaceX shares rose in early market trading Monday, extending gains from its record IPO debut after Elon Musk said the company could reach $1 trillion in annual revenue by the end of the decade.

Yahoo Finance data show the stock traded near $170, up about 6% from Friday’s close.

The move followed a strong first session in which SpaceX priced its initial public offering at $135 a share, opened at $150, and closed at $161.11, giving the company a market value of about $2.2 trillion.

The rally also spilled into crypto-linked derivatives tied to the stock. CoinGlass data show SpaceX futures volume climbed 140% to about $930 million, while open interest rose above $540 million.

The early market advance added fresh momentum to one of the most closely watched listings in years, underlining investor appetite for exposure to Musk’s rocket, satellite, and artificial intelligence company after the largest IPO on record.

Retail fuels SpaceX’s record IPO debut

SpaceX raised $75 billion on its first day of trading, making it the largest IPO on record and immediately placing the rocket, satellite, and artificial intelligence company among the most valuable publicly traded companies in the US.

The company’s market value of over $2 trillion put it behind Amazon, valued at about $2.54 trillion, and ahead of Broadcom, valued at about $1.81 trillion.

Available data shows that retail investors played a central role in that debut.

Vanda Research data shows that individual investors bought a net $93.8 million of SpaceX shares on Friday, the largest single-day net retail purchase for any IPO on record.

Moreover, SpaceX accounted for about 4% of all single-stock retail turnover that day, with net purchases more than 3.5 times those of Nvidia, the next most purchased stock.

Meanwhile, the listing also spilled into crypto markets, where traders used tokenized equity products and derivatives to gain exposure to the stock. This is particularly notable, given the challenges that marked the first trading day on some crypto trading platforms, such as Binance.

Still, CryptoQuant data showed strong activity across platforms that listed SpaceX-linked instruments. On Gate.com, trading volume for the tokenized SPCX ticker exceeded $100 million on its first day, compared with about $4 million for Circle and $3.5 million for Tesla on the same venue.

Equity-linked tokens on Gate.com typically generate daily volumes between $10 million and $25 million across the assets shown in the platform’s data. SpaceX’s first-day activity stood well above that range, showing the scale of demand among crypto-native traders.

The activity suggests tokenized equities are becoming a more visible outlet for major stock-market events. These products remain small compared with traditional equity markets, and their regulatory treatment varies by jurisdiction.

Still, the SpaceX debut showed that crypto traders are willing to use on-chain or exchange-based instruments to gain exposure to high-profile public companies without leaving digital asset venues.

Musk stretches the growth case

SpaceX’s rally gained further momentum after Musk posted on X over the weekend that the firm could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. He added that he would be surprised if the company failed to exceed that level by 2031.

The projection gave investors a new benchmark for a stock already trading at one of the richest valuations in the public market. SpaceX reported about $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, meaning Musk’s target would require revenue to increase more than 50-fold in roughly five years.

That forecast also sits well above some of the most optimistic Wall Street estimates. Morgan Stanley projects about $330 billion in revenue by 2030, meaning Musk’s figure is roughly three times that estimate.

Meanwhile, Brett Winton, chief futurist at Ark Invest, has taken a more aggressive long-term view, saying Starlink and Starshield could generate more than $1 trillion in excess cash through 2035 while reaching $400 billion in annualized earnings.

The wide gap between current revenue and those projections helps explain the debate around SpaceX’s valuation.

The company’s revenue base is large for an aerospace business, but still small compared with the market value now attached to the stock. Its 2025 revenue marked strong growth from the previous year, while first-quarter 2026 revenue came in around $4.69 billion.

The company, however, remained in the red as spending increased.

This means that investors backing the stock are betting that several businesses can scale at once. Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite broadband network, is the company’s largest near-term revenue driver. It has become a meaningful source of recurring sales and gives SpaceX a global consumer and enterprise product outside traditional launch services.

Starshield, its government-focused satellite communications unit, has also become part of the bullish case as demand for secure connectivity grows among defense and public-sector customers.

Starship carries the more speculative upside. The launch system is designed to reduce the cost of reaching orbit and support larger commercial, government, and scientific missions. SpaceX has framed it as central to future markets in space logistics, lunar operations, Mars development, and other forms of transport.

The company has also broadened its pitch around artificial intelligence, telecommunications, and space infrastructure.

Its prospectus placed the total addressable market for those ambitions at up to $28.5 trillion, a figure that includes several industries still in their early stages of development.

Those projections help explain the intensity of demand around the IPO. They also show how much of SpaceX’s valuation depends on businesses that must scale quickly, absorb heavy investment, and avoid major technical or regulatory setbacks.

Scrutiny emerges around SpaceX’s valuation

Meanwhile, SpaceX’s market momentum has also drawn warnings from analysts who say its valuation leaves little room for slower growth, higher costs, or delays in its major projects.

CFRA analysts cited SpaceX’s demanding growth assumptions, elevated valuation, and heavy capital needs as key reasons for their cautious view.

Those costs are already rising. SpaceX reported $10.1 billion in capital expenditures for the three months ended March, compared with $4.1 billion a year earlier. The increase reflected spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, Starship development, and other long-term projects.

At the same time, profitability remains another pressure point. The company lost nearly $5 billion in 2025, while accumulated losses over the past several years are estimated at $50 billion.

SpaceX also warned in its prospectus that it may never become profitable, a disclosure that underlines how much spending may still be required before its biggest bets mature.

Henrik Zeberg, a macro analyst at Swissblock, said the market is treating SpaceX as one of the world’s most valuable companies despite its losses.

He compared the valuation with past periods of market excess and argued that investors are paying ahead for the earnings power the company has yet to prove.

According to him:

“There is no doubt! We have the largest Bubble ever. And it will burst. Not yet. Expect surge into final top…. But soon!”

Nonetheless, Wall Street’s early targets show little agreement on where the stock should trade.

Loop Capital has the highest target at $349, followed by Baird at $320 and Bernstein at $310. Oppenheimer set its target at $190, while New Street Research is at $165.

The average sits near $267, but the wide range reflects sharply different views on SpaceX’s future revenue, margins, and market opportunity.

To sustain the rally, SpaceX will need to show that its largest businesses can grow fast enough to support the price investors are paying. The market will be looking for updates on Starlink growth, Starship progress, government contracts, AI-related spending, and any sign that revenue is moving closer to Musk’s $1 trillion target.

For now, investors are paying a premium for access to a company that was out of reach in public markets for years. That premium could remain intact if SpaceX keeps expanding quickly, but it also leaves the stock exposed if costs rise faster than expected or its path to profitability takes longer than the market currently assumes.

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How to invest in SpaceX

Buying individual shares

Investing in SpaceX via index funds, ETFs or mutual funds

How not to invest in SpaceX

S&P 500 and DJIA: Not all index funds are adding SpaceX right away

Avoiding SpaceX in a Nasdaq or Russell allocation via direct indexing

What’s the final verdict on SpaceX stock?

What do financial advisors think?

Other ways to invest in the space industry

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Billionaire investor and Baron Capital CEO Ron Baron says he has given his firm the green light to accumulate 10 figures worth of SpaceX (SPCX) shares.

In a call with other Baron Capital executives, Baron says that since SpaceX is looking to raise $70 billion from the public markets following its debut on June 12th, he wants his investment firm to buy $1 billion worth of SPCX shares to avoid dilution.

“So we own about 1.25% of SpaceX. And if you’re going to raise $70 billion, and I don’t want to be diluted, then we need to have a billion dollars.”

According to Baron, he expects massive demand for SpaceX from multiple sources, starting with big money managers who do not own any or own very little of Elon Musk’s tech firm.

“And there are so many people who are huge money managers, people with $2 trillion, $3 trillion, $1 trillion. They don’t own a share. And the people who have $7 or $8 trillion, they own way less than they can. So you have huge demand coming from people who don’t own enough and have to own more.”

With SpaceX’s expected inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 following the adoption of the “fast-track” rule, the billionaire sees additional demand from passive investors.

“And then you also have these indexes where passive investors have to invest in those indexes, whether they like it or not. If they’re going to duplicate an index, and you have a new company coming into the index, they’ve got to invest in it. So you have demand coming from investors who don’t own any and are large-cap growth, they have to own it.

And then, in addition to that, you have people who are going to be trying to duplicate an index, and they have to own it too. And then you have people like us who say, ‘Boy, I have never in my life seen a business like this,’ and I haven’t. Then, they have to own it too.”

SpaceX is targeting an initial public offering price of $135 at a valuation of $1.77 trillion.

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Crypto traders have turned Elon Musk’s expected SpaceX listing into a round-the-clock proxy market, pushing more than $1 billion through SpaceX-linked perpetual futures in the last three days as investors try to front-run one of the largest public offerings in Wall Street history.

The shift comes as retail investors face limited allocations in a heavily oversubscribed offering and look for other ways to gain exposure.

It also arrives with a warning from market history as some of the most celebrated technology listings of the past decade opened to enormous demand, only to punish early buyers with steep first-year losses before settling into longer-term trading patterns.

Crypto becomes the early trading floor

Before SpaceX shares begin trading on a traditional exchange, crypto venues have become the closest thing to a live market for the company’s expected public debut.

The SPCX perpetual future, a synthetic contract linked to SpaceX’s pre-IPO valuation, has drawn more than $1 billion in trading volume over the past 72 hours, CoinGlass data show. Since May 30, cumulative volume across participating platforms has exceeded $2.6 billion, with open interest around $363 million.

Unlike ordinary equity options, perpetual futures have no expiration date. Traders can hold positions indefinitely, but they must manage funding payments and the risk of liquidation if prices move sharply against them.

That structure makes the market especially attractive to crypto traders accustomed to high leverage and continuous price movement.

Hyperliquid helped pioneer the SPCX contract, but activity has since spread beyond decentralized finance. Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume, now accounts for a large share of the market, showing how quickly a synthetic product can become a major venue for price discovery before the underlying stock exists in public markets.

Meanwhile, the market is attracting bullish bets. Arkham Intelligence said one trader using the handle “wenyu8888888” had placed a $5.7 million, 2x short on SPCX, describing it as the largest SpaceX short it had tracked.

The position highlights how the synthetic market has also become a venue for traders willing to bet that the IPO premium will fade once public trading begins. It also shows how quickly a single leveraged account can become part of the broader spectacle around the listing.

For traders shut out of the official bookbuild, the contract offers a way to express a view on SpaceX before the opening bell.

For market watchers, it offers something Wall Street’s formal IPO process does not: a continuously moving price backed by real capital, leverage, and liquidation risk.

That makes the SPCX market a rough but useful gauge of speculative appetite, as it shows where traders willing to take immediate financial risk believe the stock could trade once public markets get their first chance to price it.

However, it does not grant ownership in SpaceX, voting rights, or any claim on shares.

The premium is still there, but smaller

The futures market continues to suggest that traders expect SpaceX to open above its reported IPO price.

The company’s offering has been priced at $135 a share, giving SpaceX an expected valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion to $1.8 trillion. At about $162, the SPCX contract implies a premium of roughly 17% to the listing price.

While that represents a meaningful gap, it is also a sharp reset from the early days of the contract, when speculative buying drove prices above $220 and, at one point, near $230.

At those levels, traders were pricing in a far larger first-day jump and treating SpaceX as a scarcity asset before its stock became widely available.

The compression in that premium is important because it shows the market has become more selective even as headline demand remains enormous.

Underwriters have drawn hundreds of billions of dollars in investor interest for a planned $75 billion raise, making the deal several times oversubscribed.

In many IPOs, that kind of demand would allow bankers to lift the final price range before shares begin trading. SpaceX’s fixed-price structure leaves less room for that adjustment, forcing investors to accept the $135 price or walk away.

Retail demand has added another layer of pressure. SpaceX reserved a larger-than-usual portion of the offering for individual investors, but the scale of demand means many buyers are likely to receive only part of what they requested.

Some of that frustrated demand appears to be spilling into synthetic markets, where traders can build exposure immediately but take on risks that differ markedly from those of owning common stock.

IPO history gives buyers reason to pause

The rush for SpaceX exposure is running into a warning from the recent history of major technology listings: even strong companies can deliver painful early returns when investors buy at aggressive valuations.

Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, has argued that one common mistake investors make during high-profile listings is treating a great business as a great investment at any price.

His analysis of major IPOs shows that the median offering loses 31% in its first year and suffers a peak-to-trough drawdown of 53% along the way.

That point has become more relevant as some investors compare SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic with the early public-market days of Amazon, Google, and Meta. They argue that buying the next generation of dominant technology companies at IPO could resemble buying the last generation of internet giants before they became some of the most valuable businesses in the world.

However, Jim Chanos, the veteran short seller, rejected that comparison and argued that the valuation gap is too large to ignore.

According to him, Amazon went public in 1997 at a valuation of about $450 million, or roughly three times revenue. Google was listed in 2004 at about $23 billion and roughly seven times revenue. Meta debuted in 2012 at a valuation of about $104 billion and around 20 times revenue, then sold off sharply after listing.

Chanos argues that SpaceX is starting from a valuation that already dwarfs those early public-market entry points, leaving less room for investors to benefit from multiple expansion if growth falls short of the market’s most aggressive expectations.

He also pointed to Uber as a cautionary example of how large addressable-market forecasts can fail to translate directly into public-market value. Uber pitched a total addressable market of more than $12 trillion when it went public in 2019. Its market capitalization is now about $150 billion, a little over 1% of that projected opportunity.

Using a similar approach, Chanos argued, would imply a much lower value for SpaceX than the roughly $2 trillion level now being discussed by the market.

Thierry Borgeat, co-founder of the financial research firm Arvy, reached a similar conclusion after tracking the post-listing performance of prominent technology and growth companies over the past decade.

According to him, the record shows that first-year volatility has been the rule, even for companies that later became major market winners.

For context, Facebook fell 54% from its first-year high before recovering. Snap, Uber, Pinterest, Lyft, Rivian, and Robinhood suffered even deeper drawdowns, with declines ranging from 56% to 90% during their first year as public companies.

According to Borgeat, the pattern was not confined to broken listings. Zoom Video Communications finished its first year up 142%, but only after enduring a 40% drawdown. Palantir Technologies closed its first public year up 153%, while still forcing early holders through a 53% decline before the rebound took hold.

Additionally, CrowdStrike, Datadog, and MongoDB also ended their first year in positive territory, but each experienced sharp interim declines.

The lesson from those listings is that early demand can lift a stock on debut without preventing a severe reset once the market begins testing valuation, growth assumptions, and investor patience.

That history complicates the current SpaceX trade. Crypto derivatives still suggest traders expect the company to open above its IPO price.

However, they offer a weaker guide to what happens after the first burst of demand is filled and public-market investors begin deciding whether a valuation near $1.8 trillion leaves enough room for error.

Regulatory scrutiny follows SpaceX’s IPO

Meanwhile, the scale of the listing has drawn scrutiny in Washington, where Sen. Elizabeth Warren has urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to delay the offering until regulators address risks to retail investors and market structure.

Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, warned SEC Chair Paul Atkins that a SpaceX listing of this size could create unusual risks for public markets. Her concerns focus on valuation, shareholder rights, and the company’s governance structure.

The letter argued that public investors could be exposed to a company in which control remains heavily concentrated among Musk and insiders.

According to the lawmaker, supervoting shares, mandatory arbitration provisions, and Texas corporate law could limit outside shareholders’ ability to challenge management decisions or seek legal remedies in disputes.

Warren also raised concerns about passive investors. At a valuation near $1.8 trillion, SpaceX would likely become a major component of market indexes after listing. That could force millions of investors in index funds and retirement accounts to gain exposure to the company even if they never chose to buy SpaceX directly.

In view of this, Warren stated:

“These are not normal circumstances: a number of additional factors exacerbate concerns and require action by the SEC to meet its investor protection and market integrity mandates by delaying the [SpaceX] IPO.”

The warning adds a political layer to an offering already defined by unusual scale and retail attention. It does not mean the IPO will be delayed. Registration materials have moved through the SEC process, and underwriters are preparing for a debut that could become one of the most closely watched market events in years.

However, Warren’s intervention gives skeptics a clear framework for questioning the deal. The concerns are no longer limited to whether SpaceX opens higher than $135.

They now extend to whether ordinary investors understand the legal, governance, and valuation risks embedded in the offering.

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Steve Eisman, the investor who became famous for his prescient bet against subprime mortgages ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, says he wants no part of the upcoming SpaceX IPO — and the company’s own prospectus is his primary exhibit.

Eisman, host of “The Real Eisman Playbook” podcast and former Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Monday that he is simply “not a fan” of the offering, which is expected to price as soon as Friday.

According to Eisman:

“Let’s see. If you read the prospectus, I mean, there’s some amusing stuff in the prospectus. Like my favorite part of the prospectus is that one of the things that SpaceX wants to do is asteroid mining. I thought that was kind of funny.”

His more substantive concern is the company’s pivot into AI. Eisman noted that capex as a share of revenue jumped from 42% in fiscal year 2023 to 215% in the most recent first quarter, driven by AI infrastructure spending. He called Grok, SpaceX’s AI product, “not a world class AI company” and warned that AI output broadly is “very commoditized” with “no moats.”

Eisman pointed to the SpaceX S-1’s total addressable market figure of $28.5 trillion, with 85% attributed to AI, noting that “the entire company is being bet on AI in terms of its future, not on SpaceX and not on Starlink.”

According to Eisman:

“What I love about the S-1 is that it reads like a science fiction novel. It really does.”

He clarified he has no interest in shorting the stock. “I have no interest in shorting this. I’m just not playing,” he said.

Eisman previously bet against Tesla before abandoning the short position in 2020. “If you are short, you’ve got to walk away. There’s no glory in losing money,” he said at the time.

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