trade – Finance Master https://finance.vmondeika.com Investment Tips & Top Stories Sun, 14 Jun 2026 01:39:17 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0.2 Legacy sportsbooks are chasing prediction markets that already trade billions each month https://finance.vmondeika.com/legacy-sportsbooks-are-chasing-prediction-markets-that-already-trade-billions-each-month/ https://finance.vmondeika.com/legacy-sportsbooks-are-chasing-prediction-markets-that-already-trade-billions-each-month/#respond Sun, 14 Jun 2026 01:39:17 +0000 https://finance.vmondeika.com/legacy-sportsbooks-are-chasing-prediction-markets-that-already-trade-billions-each-month/

DraftKings told investors on June 9 that its prediction markets business is scaling fast, and the market liked what it saw. The company’s Form 8-K reported that May 2026 annualized consumer volume in its Predictions offering rose 24% month over month to $1.3 billion, while annualized total volume traded climbed 34% to $3.1 billion. Shares of DraftKings jumped roughly 10% in early trading on the news.

Those figures are enormous for a product line that’s barely six months old, since DraftKings only launched Predictions in December 2025. Seen against the broader category, though, they show a company that’s arriving late to a market prediction-native platforms have already built into something far larger.

That $3.1 billion is an annualized run rate, which translates to roughly $258 million in actual volume in May. Kalshi, by comparison, processed $17.9 billion in May alone.

The gap between DraftKings $258 million and prediction markets’ $24 billion

Prediction markets let people trade contracts tied to the outcome of future events, anything from elections and inflation data to sports results and crypto prices. Each contract pays out $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t, and the price in between works like a live probability gauge: a contract trading at 65 cents means traders collectively give the outcome a 65% chance.

You can hold until the event resolves or sell early at the going price, just as you would with a stock. That structure essentially makes these platforms behave like financial exchanges, with order books and constantly moving prices, which is a large part of why so many companies are rushing in.

It also helps to decode one piece of accounting in the DraftKings announcement. “Annualized” means the company took one month of activity and multiplied it by 12, which is a standard way to show momentum but makes the headline number 12 times bigger than what actually happened.

Strip that out, and DraftKings handled about $258 million of trading in May. The established platforms operate on a different scale entirely. Combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest names, climbed from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026, according to a Pew Research Center analysis.

May data, released after the Pew study, showed the two platforms moving in opposite directions: Kalshi notched its ninth straight monthly record at $17.91 billion, while Polymarket fell to $7.08 billion, its second consecutive monthly decline.

For perspective, all legal US sportsbooks combined took in around $14 billion in wagers per month across 2025. The prediction markets category DraftKings just entered already moves more money than the industry DraftKings came from.

However, it’s important to note that every platform measures volume differently. Robinhood skips dollars altogether and reports the number of contracts traded, a figure that sounds astronomical because contracts almost always cost less than a dollar each.

Its CEO, Vlad Tenev, said over 12 billion contracts were traded on the platform in 2025 and predicted the business could eventually drive “trillions” in annual volume, while Deutsche Bank counted more than 16 billion contracts so far in 2026. The measures vary, but every version of the math leads to the same place: DraftKings’ May volume is roughly what Kalshi moves in a week.

Sports are the engine pulling all of this forward, which explains why a sportsbook felt compelled to show up. Sports alone account for roughly 80% of Kalshi’s volume, and together with politics and crypto, it has driven about 91% of Kalshi’s activity and 90% of Polymarket’s since July 2024, as CryptoSlate has reported.

DraftKings timed its disclosure well, landing days into the 2026 World Cup and just after the NBA Finals, and one estimate put potential World Cup prediction market activity as high as $2.5 billion.

What the sportsbooks are really chasing

Each side of this fight has weapons that the other lacks. Sportsbooks bring millions of existing customers, famous brands, payment infrastructure, huge marketing budgets, and years of experience in pricing live odds.

The prediction-native platforms bring deep pools of traders ready to take the other side of any contract, a much wider menu of events, and, crucially, a legal structure that lets them operate where sportsbooks can’t.

DraftKings CEO Jason Robins told investors the company intends to establish a leadership position in sports predictions before year-end, and the company has raised its estimate of the total market it can address to between $55 billion and $80 billion.

That legal structure is the whole reason this category exists. Sports betting in America is governed state by state, and each sportsbook needs a license in every state where it operates. Event contracts take a different legal route: they’re classified as derivatives, financial instruments overseen only by the CFTC, the same regulator that watches over futures on oil and corn. A federal license means one approval covers the whole country. It’s how DraftKings launched Predictions in 38 states, including several where online sports betting remains illegal.

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Whether that route survives is now the central legal fight in American gambling. A federal appeals court ruled on April 6 that Kalshi’s sports contracts likely fall under exclusive federal jurisdiction, shielding them from New Jersey’s gambling enforcement.

Ten days later, a different appeals court, hearing Nevada’s case, seemed inclined to rule the opposite way. If the courts split, the Supreme Court usually has to settle it, and prediction market traders themselves price a 64% chance the high court takes a case by year-end.

Meanwhile, the enforcement keeps escalating in both directions: the CFTC sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois in April to stop them from going after Kalshi and Polymarket, courts in Maryland and Massachusetts have sided with state regulators, Kalshi faces more than a dozen federal lawsuits, and CryptoSlate’s reporting shows the same tension spreading abroad, from user probes in South Korea to platform blocks in Brazil.

The next ruling to watch comes from the Sixth Circuit, where Kalshi is appealing an Ohio decision that went against it, and the coalition lining up against the company there just increased.

Former CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler, who ran the agency when Dodd-Frank was implemented in 2010, filed an amicus brief on June 11 arguing Congress never intended his agency to become a national sports-betting regulator, and that sports bets are not swaps under the law he helped write.

He filed alongside the American Gaming Association, 30 Native American tribes, the Indian Gaming Association, and Better Markets. In a parallel Massachusetts case, 38 state attorneys general have already lined up behind the state.

The split also runs through the sportsbook industry itself. DraftKings and FanDuel quit the AGA in November 2025, days before DraftKings launched Predictions, after the trade group moved to bar members that operate prediction markets. The same association is now arguing in court that the product DraftKings just built is illegal gambling.

There’s one more thing worth understanding before taking any of these numbers at face value: volume is how much money changes hands, but revenue is the small slice the platform keeps. The slice comes from fees of a few cents per contract, so a billion dollars in trading might produce only a few million in actual income.

The whole sector generated about $31 million in fees in April, and Polymarket collected $29 million of it despite trailing Kalshi badly on volume, because its traders place larger bets. DraftKings hasn’t said how much its Predictions volume earns, so its $3.1 billion run-rate only measures traction, and the profit question stays open.

DraftKings’ prediction markets growth is huge, and the 34% monthly jump is the kind of number that moves a stock. But the more important point is that legacy sportsbooks are following a category they didn’t invent, one where Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood have already shown that event contracts can generate billions in monthly volume and have spent years building both the trading depth and the legal arguments to defend it.

Whether DraftKings can turn its sports audience into exchange-style traders before those platforms grow too liquid to catch is the open question, and the answer will say a great deal about whether the sportsbook model absorbs prediction markets or gets absorbed by them.

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Ethereum’s $1,500 test shows how quickly Wall Street’s crypto trade has turned https://finance.vmondeika.com/ethereums-1500-test-shows-how-quickly-wall-streets-crypto-trade-has-turned/ https://finance.vmondeika.com/ethereums-1500-test-shows-how-quickly-wall-streets-crypto-trade-has-turned/#respond Sun, 07 Jun 2026 21:54:18 +0000 https://finance.vmondeika.com/ethereums-1500-test-shows-how-quickly-wall-streets-crypto-trade-has-turned/

Ethereum’s slide to its lowest level in more than a year is testing the Wall Street trade that brought the token deeper into institutional portfolios.

Data from CryptoSlate shows that the second-largest cryptocurrency fell to as low as $1,506 during the last 24 hours, its weakest level since April 2025, extending a broad crypto selloff that has already drained leverage from derivatives markets and pushed traders toward defensive positioning.

Crucially, the downswing is not confined to ETH’s spot market as the digital asset is also experiencing a broader deterioration across regulated ETF flows, centralized exchange deposits, and derivatives positioning.

This situation comes at a time when the broader crypto market sentiment has significantly weakened, with Bitcoin falling toward a four-month low near $60,000, while Ethereum has erased much of its market support.

ETF outflows weaken Ethereum’s institutional bid

The pressure has been most visible in the ETF market, where the products that gave institutions a regulated way to buy Ethereum have turned into a source of persistent outflows.

Data from SoSoValue shows that spot ETH ETFs have recorded four straight weeks of withdrawals totaling more than $870 million.

Ethereum ETFs Weekly Flows
Ethereum ETFs Weekly Flows (Source: SoSoValue)

During that period, the funds posted a 17-day outflow streak interrupted by only one day of inflows, when investors added $19.3 million.

As a result, sosoValue data show total spot Ethereum ETF assets have declined more than 70% from their $30 billion peak to $8.71 billion, which is equal to about 4.01% of Ethereum’s circulating market capitalization.

The reversal has weakened one of the main arguments behind Ethereum’s institutional expansion. The ETFs were expected to broaden access to the asset, deepen liquidity, and give traditional investors a cleaner way to gain exposure without handling tokens directly.

However, that demand has softened as ETH’s price moved lower and investors have reduced risk across digital assets.

Exchange inflows add another supply risk

As institutional demand-side forces abated, the physical supply available on liquid trading platforms experienced a sudden and substantial expansion.

CryptoQuant data show Ethereum inflows to trading platforms climbed to about 2.24 million ETH in a single day, the highest level in four months. Binance accounted for more than 1.16 million ETH of those inflows, representing more than half of the total.

Ethereum Exchange Inflows
Ethereum Exchange Inflows (Source: CryptoQuant)

This surge in active supply can be seen in high-profile on-chain movements that served as glaring evidence of the liquidity migration.

Notably, a wallet linked to Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin awoke after more than three years of dormancy, mobilizing 80,001 ETH, valued at roughly $122 million.

The massive transfer epitomized the broader trend where long-inactive capital breaks from cold storage to seek out active trading venues and liquid architectures amid the mounting market stress.

Large inflows to trading platforms do not automatically mean investors are selling. They can reflect market-making activity, collateral movement, internal transfers, or portfolio restructuring during periods of stress.

However, traders watch the metric closely because coins held on exchanges are easier to sell or use in derivatives activity than coins sitting in private wallets.

The timing has made the increase harder to dismiss. Ethereum was already trading near $1,580 when the inflows accelerated, while Bitcoin had fallen toward $59,000. That combination suggested investors were moving assets during a marketwide reset rather than during a routine period of repositioning.

If exchange deposits remain elevated, the market could face additional short-term volatility.

Derivatives deleveraging deprives market of rebound capital

The velocity of the current crypto market decline has been accelerated by an extensive deleveraging cycle across leveraged futures platforms.

As spot valuations rapidly deteriorated, automated liquidation engines on major exchanges systematically closed out underwater long positions to protect clearinghouse integrity, amplifying organic selling pressure.

Data analyzed by Santiment illustrates that this liquidation wave effectively flushed out a massive block of speculative capital over a narrow four-day window:

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  • Bitcoin Total Open Interest: Contracted by approximately 25%, dropping to $23.2 billion, which is its lowest operational aggregate since early April.
  • Ethereum Total Open Interest: Decreased by 13%, settling at $9.8 billion, a structural low point not seen since March.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Open Interest
Bitcoin and Ethereum Open Interest (Source: Santiment)

While this aggressive deleveraging leaves the underlying market structurally healthier by purging speculative excess and over-extended margin, it introduces an immediate liquidity vacuum.

The severe drop in open interest demonstrates that the speculative floor has thinned, leaving the market highly vulnerable to further spot pressure due to the lack of immediate leveraged capital available to front-run a classic V-shaped recovery.

Consequently, retail crowd sentiment has cratered to its most pessimistic footing since mid-February.

The firm noted that social metrics reveal an exponential increase in the phraseology of capitulation, with organic social discussions increasingly pairing terms like “Bitcoin” and “altcoins” alongside terminal descriptors such as “dead,” “finished,” “over,” and “ending.”

Traders hedge for a break below $1,500

The buildup of stress across ETFs, exchange flows, whale cost bases, and leveraged markets has shifted attention to ETH’s options market, where traders are paying more to protect against another leg lower.

Deribit data show demand for downside protection has increased sharply. The ETH options put-to-call premium rose to 3.7 times on Friday and has shown consistent excess demand for put options since Monday. Put contracts give holders the right to sell at a set price, making them a common hedge when traders expect further losses or want protection against a disorderly move.

ETH’s open interest has clustered around several downside strikes. Traders have built roughly $108 million in open interest around the $1,500 strike, while the $1,400 strike has attracted about $75 million. The $1,000 strike has drawn about $78 million in positioning.

Ethereum Traders Options Positioning
Ethereum Traders Options Positioning (Source: Deribit)

Those levels do not mean the market expects ETH to fall to $1,000 immediately. Instead, they show that traders are paying for protection after several support signals weakened at the same time.

BlockScholes data show the shift has also appeared in volatility pricing. ETH short-dated implied volatility has jumped from a year-to-date low of 36% to 67%, signaling that traders now expect larger near-term price swings.

The move has been accompanied by a sharper skew toward out-of-the-money puts. The seven-day ETH options skew has moved to about -14%, compared with roughly -3% to -4% in late May. Additionally, the demand for puts has also spread across 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, and 90-day maturities.

That broadening shows traders are not just hedging a single event or one short-term move. They are preparing for the possibility that Ethereum’s weakness could extend if ETF outflows continue, exchange inflows stay elevated, and large holders remain below key cost levels.

The next test is whether $1,500 becomes a floor or a trigger. A stabilization in ETF flows and a decline in exchange deposits could help ease pressure.

Without that, the options market’s focus on downside strikes may become the clearest signal of where traders expect the next phase of the selloff to concentrate.

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Morgan Stanley Details Opportunities Outside of Tech Trade, Names Energy, Infrastructure, Gold and More https://finance.vmondeika.com/morgan-stanley-details-opportunities-outside-of-tech-trade-names-energy-infrastructure-gold-and-more/ https://finance.vmondeika.com/morgan-stanley-details-opportunities-outside-of-tech-trade-names-energy-infrastructure-gold-and-more/#respond Tue, 02 Jun 2026 04:23:14 +0000 https://finance.vmondeika.com/morgan-stanley-details-opportunities-outside-of-tech-trade-names-energy-infrastructure-gold-and-more/

Financial services titan Morgan Stanley is revealing alternative trading opportunities outside of the technology sector.

In a new interview with CNBC Television, Kathleen Entwistle, Morgan Stanley’s private wealth managing director and advisor, says the bank is diversifying its clients’ portfolios by putting money in energy, gold, and infrastructure.

“Anyone that’s been participating in the market is very happy at this moment. The question is, whether you can continue to find opportunities or not. and we do think there are opportunities there. You just have to be mindful and just a little bit careful about where you’re going…

Where are the opportunities, let’s say outside of the tech trade? A client says we want to diversify. We don’t want to be all in on chips and meta and all that.

We’re putting clients in real assets right now. So we’re also looking at energy infrastructure, things like that, the digital space. So I do think that’s an area that we can look at.”

Entwistle goes on to further clarify what she meant by noting that the bank is putting clients’ funds into “real assets.”

“When we think about real assets, we’re thinking about some of the things inside the market, certainly outside the market as well. but we like hedge funds.

We like, as you know, gold and silver and things like that. We like energy and different areas that will respond well in the kind of market that we’re in.”

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